Saturday, December 30, 2006

Byrne's Logic similar to eBay's Math

In another interesting turn of events Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne has posted some interesting comments in response to site users.

According to Patrick's Logic "The sad truth is, we now have about 5 times as many page views/auction as we did a year ago, a number that (I believe) runs about 60% of eBay's page views/auction". According to the Alexa stats for Overstock there are actually less page views per item today than there were a year ago. While it is possible that Alexa stats would vary from Overstock's internal metrics it is highly unlikely that one would show a drop in views while the other shows a 5x increase.

Another comparison Patrick makes is "2/3 of our sellers do not use subscription plans anyway. They list about 5% of our auctions, but for 2006 their auctions had a closing rate of 30.6%. I believe that rate is roughly comparable to eBay's". While we cannot Terapeak nor Hammertap Overstock DATA, actual sellers confirm Overstock is no Comparison to eBay in Sell through rates, or closing values.

To sum up Patrick's Logic "Yes, we love our Enterprise Merchants. But in general, the changes we have instituted are overwhelmingly in favor of the smallest sellers. They are getting 30.6% closing rates. We are trying to make you all like them"

So small business owners there you have it! Overstock wishes to make your business like that of a fictional character left unnamed, yet heavily promoted.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Overstock Auctions Announces Cancellation of Subscription Plans

Overstock Auctions has once again disrupted the balance of an already fragile marketplace by announcing the complete cancellation of subscription listing plans.

This announcement comes in the wake of a previous announcement cancelling 60% of the existing auction plans several weeks ago.

As all experienced Overstock sellers know the dismal Sell through Rates, high percentage of Non Paying Bidders, and lack of customer support have plagued the site for months. Cancellation of the subscription listing plans will lead to a mass exodus of merchants from the site.

Prior to this latest announcement listing counts were down about 60% over previous months.

New Year Weekend Update

Ah the last weekend of the year and it couldn't have gotten here soon enough.

The United States Postal Services Retail Locations and Delivery Services will be closed Tuesday January 2 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President Ford. The USPS Offices will also be closed the day before in observance of New Year's Day. A Three day delay in shipping is sure to cause some distress among customers.

UPS will be open and Delivering on Tuesday according to the driver we spoke with moments ago.

Overstock.com Auctions has been experiencing random glitches accessing the site today with many users reporting the familiar "Oh No" page from Overstock. Some Overstock.com auctions sellers also report multiple problems with site invoices. See the Following threads for Descriptions:
The Site is Sending the wrong Invoices
Site down problems listing etc.
2 Emails Per Auction

Overstock sellers should not feel alone. EBay glitches continue to plague the site with many Internet users having trouble with various site features. Drop Down lists and listing revisions seem to be causing the most trouble for sellers on the site. A quick and easy fix is to use a listing tool such as Turbo Lister to manage listings until the problems are fixed.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

EBay issues Trading Advice after Earthquake in Asia

EBay has issued an announcement regarding the Earthquake off the coast of Taiwan that occurred Tuesday. According to the announcement international communication cables were damaged and Internet connectivity between continents may have been disrupted.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

"Anything Goes Deal" on eBay with Domino's Pizza

Domino's Pizza will be launching a new Treasure Hunt style promotion on eBay January 1, 2007 according to Yahoo Finance.

The Official Domino's Anything Goes Deal site www.anythinggoesdeal.com states a SAAB 9-3 AERO Convertible can be had for $9.99 along with other premium items during the promotion dates from January 1, 2007 and February 5, 2006.

Promotions from outside sources are always good for site traffic, however there could be some issues if the contest is similar to eBay's last Treasure Hunt Promotion. During the previous eBay sponsored Treasure Hunt promotion consumers were confused by the clues and purchased Real listings by mistake.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

EBay to Boost Auction Counts with Holiday Special

Once again eBay has chosen December 27TH as the day for an expected Reduced Price listing day in the United States. According to the Announcement Fixed Price and Auction format CORE listings will incur a reduced $0.15 listing fee.

Of course the Promotion excludes all upgrades and certain categories!

A promotion should increase the Overall listing counts for eBay (which has dropped below the 10 Mil. mark) just in time to boost 4Q figures before the end of the year. It will be interesting to see just how many listings are effectively added to the site considering the constant rash of glitches eBay users have experienced over recent weeks.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Large Retailers Fight Small Merchants

Large Online retailers have began to fight back against smaller online merchants with smaller budgets.

With the release of Internet Explorer 7 and Extended Validation SSL web site visitors will be shown a green toolbar that "gives consumers confidence and builds trust in e-commerce" according to Verisign's FAQ.

The Pricing structure and requirements for Extended Validation SSL places this new certification outside of the realm of most small business owners.

Overstock.com was issued the first such certificate according to Verisign's press release.

While Verisign and other large companies state such certificates are necessary for consumer protection, many small business owners question the true intentions behind such certificates. Most smaller online merchants already use various forms of SSL certificates on their sites provided by Verisign.

According to Associated Press articles General Partnerships, sole proprietors, and individuals will not meet the requirements for Extended Validation SSL Certificates, thus reducing their chances to gain ground against larger merchants online.

"Godfather of Soul" James Brown Passes Away Age 73

This Christmas Morning Auction Tempest is sad to announce the passing of a Long Time Local Musician, Mr. James Brown the "Godfather of Soul".

Mr. Brown had been Hospitalized Sunday December 24Th with Pneumonia in Atlanta Georgia, and passed away unexpectedly around 1:45 Am this morning. Mr Brown had last publicly appeared on Friday at the Imperial Theatre in Augusta Georgia for his Annual Toy Giveaway according to the Augusta Chronicle.

Mr. Brown was known World Wide for his performances as the "Godfather of Soul", with hit songs including " I Got You" (I Feel Good), and "Get up Offa that Thing".

In the late 1980's Mr. Brown could often be spotted visiting one of the Local restaurants wearing his stylish scarves and sunglasses. Mr. Brown was well known to enjoy a Plain Quarter Pound hamburger on occasion, with a side of unsalted fries.

Mr. Brown will be greatly missed within the community that he supported so much through charity events.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Overstock.com Launches O-CAR BETA

Overstock.com has launched a new tab O-CAR BETA, complete with subscription plan pricing for registered Automotive Dealers.

According to the Registration Form Automotive Dealers must complete basic registration information along with a minimum 1 month contract length. There does not appear to be any required business licensing information.

Subscription Plans range from $650 per Month to $1200 Per Month for 60 or Fewer Vehicles, and $1000 per Month to $1600 per Month for 61 or More Vehicles. Automotive listing Data must be through a Preferred Data Provider.

A Dealer Help Section is available, Dealer Introduction, and a Letter from Patrick Byrne regarding the new addition to the Overstock Brand.

For those viewing the new Tabs from the main Overstock site you will notice the "Auction" Tab has changed to "Merchant Auctions".

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Watch those Budgets, Postal Increases Ahead

Online sellers should begin preparing for what may be a rocky year with a complete Overhaul of the USPS system Rates.

According to the USPS press Release President Bush signed a new Postal Law that basically ties future USPS rate increases to the Consumer Price Index, allowing for "Competitive Pricing" (Rate Increases equaling corporate greed of shipping companies)

To Coincide with the new Law the USPS has already proposed a complete overhaul and Rate increase for International Packages and Mail that will take effect at the same time as the Domestic Rate increases in 2007.

Watch those budgets and Buckle the seat Belts: 2007 is going to be a bumpy ride for small online business owners who lack the ability to negotiate volume discounts with shippers.

"You can get IT on eBay", If you can find IT

Today eBay's General Announcement Board contains "A Message From Gary Briggs - Holiday Marketing News". Highlighting eBay's Marketing efforts during the Holiday Season, and the efforts to get the message out "Whatever IT is, You can get IT on eBay".

While eBay has made a valiant effort to spread the slogan "Whatever IT is, you can get IT on eBay", eBay has failed to provide the method of finding "IT" easily.

For months eBay site users have raised concerns over site glitches impacting user ability to search the site and find available listings. The Search Forum on eBay displays a small number of the site issues involving the search, and some responses from eBay staff (PINKS) regarding the issues.

Other issues being reported recently include "Who Broke eBay?"

Sellers have also raised concerns over what appears to be a "Rolling Blackout" effect impacting groups of merchants at random times. According to the threads discussing these problems toggling store vacation settings ON for a few hours , and then Off again seems to temporarily correct this problem.

While many sellers have been attempting to work around the multiple glitches this Holiday Season, others report they have taken the next step in e-commerce and launched their own site.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Online Auction Wake up Call!

Is it time for a Wake up Call to the online auction industry? Over the past several years online auction sites, shipping services, and site users have become confused about customer and client relationships within the industry.

All risk is assumed by the customers and online sellers, however the largest share of profit are retained by the venues and related service companies. How long will online merchants and their customer bases allow profits and product quality to dwindle while others get the benefits?

In 2006 online sellers experienced price increases and surcharges with all shippers, increased costs at many sites, and decreased product exposure at all sites. Looking ahead at 2007 the groundwork is already laid for additional costs increases at every turn, UPS increases in January, FEDEX costs increases in February, and USPS increases in May.

Online sellers and their customers have complained, yet corporate executives fail to listen. Will 2007 be the year that online Merchants and customers move their business elsewhere to cut costs? Are customers more concerned about where they purchase or the quality and cost of the merchandise?

For all the Venue executives out there reading this article WAKE UP!

Saturday, December 16, 2006

The Overstock Dance

In recent weeks Overstock Auctions has made multiple changes to the site under the guise of balancing the marketplace. According to Stormy's letter small merchants have left the site due to the vast number of listings submitted by large volume subscribers, so Overstock recently canceled subscription plans larger than 300 listings.

According to the same letter Stormy states "As you know, various subscription plans have been available to the selling community since March of this year. Since implementation, our average starting price per auction has increased dramatically. We are confident that this resulted from the fact that the subscription's blanket payment causes sellers to lose their incentive to offer low starting prices."

20 days later Patrick Byrne (CEO Overstock.com) and one Meghan Tuohig posted "Meghan and I just sent this: Subscription Plans are ending" which announces the elimination of the remaining subscription plans. Meghan had previously been introduced as a colleague of Stormy Simon who was/is VP of Overstock.com Auctions.

Overstock also implemented other changes to the site this weekend including disclaimers such as this one "Note: Overstock.com is not the seller of any of the items listed on Overstock.com Auctions". Similar disclaimers can be found throughout the site while viewing auctions in list view or individual listings.

Patrick Byrne also took this opportunity to inform site users about exciting changes they hope to have implemented by March of 2007. These changes include a classified ad platform, bid cancellation capability, and 1-day auctions.

For those who may not be aware of Overstock auctions history, or those who have forgotten, including Mr. Byrne. Overstock Auctions had previously promised site users the blocked bidders functionality including the ability to cancel bids on existing auctions in 2004 by Holly MacDonald-Korth the VP of Auctions at that time, and again by JT Stevens VP of Auctions after Holly's exodus.

1-Day Auctions was a site feature Overstock Auctions users had since the site launched until March 1, 2006. Now less than a year later Overstock will be reinstating the option of 1-day listings.

All of the recent site changes, including those in management, indicate a company without clear focus or direction. Overstock must regain focus and decide the ultimate goal of their Auctions department. Merchants of all sizes will continue to operate across multiple sales and marketing channels whether Overstock succeeds or fails.

Friday, December 15, 2006

Is Overstock Following the Leader or Just Playing Games

In today's news Overstock has issued 2.7 Million shares of common stock to raise $40 Million. Within the SEC filings form FWP Overstock has disclosed several factors which appear quite interesting.

Overstock will be adding two additional Tabs to it's main site including both a Social Media Tab and Automotive Tab.

According to the form the Social Media Tab will allow " users who share common interests can collaborate with other users to author articles about their interests", while the Automotive Tab will "show automobiles for sale by car dealers and allow users to express offers on those automobiles through our website to the dealers".

Both tabs will become active some time between December 20th and December 30th.

The addition of these tabs will in effect bring Overstock more in line with eBay Motors, eBay Wiki, and eBay Reviews and Guides. Will Overstock take eBay's lead and use these additions to generate traffic to their auctions platform through relevant links, or will the additions simply be used as independent parts of the whole Overstock Brand?

While Overstock has plenty of talented staff at it's disposal, it appears Overstock is unable to create a niche of it's own! Perhaps Overstock should begin to listen to many of the long time site users who have a niche within the marketplace.

Saturday, December 9, 2006

Big O or O No! The sinking of a ship

Overstock Auctions, AKA The Big O Auctions, appears to be launching signal flares as their experiment from the primordial "OCEAN" begins to take on water.

For weeks Overstock Auctions has made changes to the site with some changes directly impacting the bottom line of many Overstock sellers. Normally the 4Th Quarter is a time of glee for online merchants, however Overstock merchants have not been experiencing positive growth.

The hopes of a wondrous Christmas selling season on Overstock have been suppressed with a site makeover removing individual seller branding, followed by a growth stunting Make It Mine policy revision, and finally today the removal of 60% of the subscription pricing plans.

Stormy Simon appears to be understating the impact of such changes as merely "frustrating", while many sellers have already purchased Q1 & Q2 inventory for 2007 based on prepaid subscription plan limits. According to Stormy's letter any prepaid portions of cancelled subscriptions will be credited to sellers accounts, however this does not address those payments made by cash, or interest accrued on prepaid contracts that will remain unfulfilled.

Like so many shopping centers around the country, Overstock Auctions can only maintain traffic flow on a limited basis without the Anchor Merchants. Small sellers will see sales continue to dwindle as Anchor Merchants take their customer bases to other venues, or even their own web sites. Overstock will in essence sink back into the primordial "OCEAN" project from whence came, and once again sell their returns on eBay.

Friday, December 8, 2006

eBay Cracks down on Designer Goods and Good Sellers

It appears that eBay has stood by the promise to restrict listings and activity related to highly counterfeited designer goods. Across the eBay boards there seems to be great confusion caused by restricted accounts and shipping destinations relating to designer brands.

On the Trust and Safety Board one seller experienced Restriction notices while trying to add a Counter to a listing for a "Tiffany" pin.

Several other threads exist throughout the site detailing shipping restrictions where listings are prohibited from shipping to specific countries such as Asia. According to one discussion among sellers excluding Asia from shipping destinations also excludes a large number of other countries under eBay's default regions.

Implementing such changes during the Holiday Season is impacting the Good sellers along with the Bad, and we all know the Bad sellers always find a way around such restrictions since they are not bothered by morals or policies.

Thursday, December 7, 2006

Bad days ahead for Online Auction Sellers

If current trends continue across multiple venues there will be Bad Days Ahead for online auctions sellers. Many sellers have complained for years over eBay's VERO program and false claims against licensed merchants, now the stakes have increased and sellers are feeling the pinch across multiple sites.

Overstock Auctions began enforcing wide spread infringement rules this week by completely removing all records of suspect auctions. Impacted sellers have posted to the Overstock message boards requesting help or information on the sites policies.

According to one user in a thread titled "I Need Help Right Away! Where's Live Chat?" the site is not only requesting copies of vendor transaction records, and proof of authenticity, but item numbers and actual URL's of the removed listings along with a sworn statement.

Patrick Byrne's Open Letter addressed the issue of counterfeit merchandise as "Fugazi Handbags" (Possibly named after the song "Epic Problem" by the band Fugazi) stating there would be zero Tolerance on the matter. According to Patrick an Overstock staff member who has sold thrift store merchandise on eBay for 3 years was helping review the listings.

Also this month eBay has announced a tougher stance on high fraud areas of the site with increased scrutiny of sellers with periodic reviews according to an unknown set of standards. Ebay also announced that the Pre-Approved bidder feature will be going away after the Holiday Selling Season.

Many sellers within high fraud categories such as Coins use the Pre-Approved bidder feature to prevent fraudulent dealers from purchasing properly graded materials at market value, and then reselling them at highly inflated grades and prices.

Another preventative measure being implemented by eBay is the Safeguarding Members ID's initiative that rolls out site wide soon.

While measures such as this will reduce the fraud rate for a while, it will also impact the small seller who occasionally lists a used designer item at auction. How many small business owners will be forced to shut down while going in endless circles to comply with unknown standards?

Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Overstock Auctions or Lets Make a Deal?

In a peculiar twist of events Overstock Auctions CEO Patrick Byrne has made a deal with sellers by reducing the new MIM pricing strategy from Twice the opening bid to 1 1/2 times the opening bid.

Such pricing strategies may work for some sellers, however it will be unacceptable to others. Many of the merchants operate within certain Industry guidelines that prevent 50% profit margins due to market conditions and pre-existing contracts.

While Overstock believes such a move will bring stability to the marketplace, many business owners will be moving their customer bases elsewhere without pricing restrictions.

Implementing a policy such as this is considered by many to cross the "Just A Venue" line from the User Agreement and possibly lead to Federal Regulation of the Online Auction Industry.

Today's post to the Overstock Auctions message board also includes a poll requesting user input as what features users would prefer to see next, One day auctions (With seller restrictions), or possibly a Fixed price or Make It Mine Only format.

Overstock has yet to address features that were requested by users in 2004 such as the Blocked Bidders List, and the ability to respond to Ratings. Both of these features were promised in 2004 and have failed to be implemented by Overstock.

Tuesday, December 5, 2006

Ebay reorganizing and Overstock Recycling

eBay North America offices in San Jose will become the new home of one very well known European executive Philipp Justus in the coming months. Philipp has done wonders for the eBay Germany site and many sellers believe a much brighter future is ahead in the US eBay.com Marketplace.

Philipp will head up a special team, reporting directly to eBay North America President Bill Cobb. Philipp's team will focus on the re balancing efforts at eBay core Auctions.

Similar to eBay's move of reorganizing Overstock Auctions has apparently began a recycling program, launched with a full banner ad for (You Guessed It) Pre-Chewed Gum. According to the Listing this is no ordinary pre-chewed gum, but that of Guy Yovan of ivillage Live complete with a letter of Authenticity. Bidding has already been vigorous with 23 bids from 3 Unique Users, two of which are from Salt Lake City! I guess Guy has a Fan club in Salt Lake with at least two members.

Will the Chewing gum loose it flavor on the Overstock Homepage Over night, or will it be the High Profile Auction that Determines Overstock's dominance in the Online Auction Industry.

Monday, December 4, 2006

Merchants or Auction Sellers

Michael Donahue of EAuctionAir.com gave listeners a reality check on last nights show while discussing the recent changes at Overstock.com Auctions. While mistakes were made in the process of implementing recent changes, change in itself is good for online commerce. Merchants adapt and Overcome any situation and work within the confines of the venue.

With that in mind are you a Merchant? or just another Auction Seller?

If you are a Merchant this is a good opportunity to rethink your business plan and expand your business across multiple venues. Reach out and find the products your existing customer base demands, and perhaps a few new products that you believe your customers would be interested in.

Try something new and don't be afraid to take a chance. Many Millionaires have been made strictly because of chance.

Sunday, December 3, 2006

Another Open Letter from Overstock Auctions CEO Patrick Byrne

Today Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne has posted another open letter to sellers on Overstock Auctions addressing some issues and asking advice of the many skilled merchants among site users.

Patrick openly states "I was impatient with them about getting it live. But I really do recognize that many of you have also devoted time and capital to make this work, and in the future we can certainly give more warning. And no changes will be again announced in an imperious "effective immediately" way."

Later in the letter Patrick addresses "Forgiveness" stating "Tempers ran high on both sides. Some of the people who were most nasty to my colleagues have written elegant apologies, but have asked to be reinstated. I think it best to let everything simmer down for a few weeks, but we can revisit this subject with them in January. "

Patrick's general tone within the letter has returned to the community type of discussion from Overstock's early days, asking guidance and input from community users. While Patrick's letter may generate guidance from some, it is sure to draw criticism from those who offered Guidance several years ago regarding features Overstock promised sellers and has yet to deliver!

Online Sellers Beware! Speed Bumps Ahead

As sales roll full steam into the Christmas Rush, online sellers should heed the cautionary road signs and route markers indicating "Speed Bumps Ahead". According to all sources there are many changes coming that will slow growth, reduce profit margins, and force many out of online sales all together.

Through planning and good marketing many sellers will be able to proceed without disruption. Staying up to date on current issues, placing cash back into depleted reserves and operating funds, and preparing back up plans will help in the coming months.

Upcoming Changes impacting online sales

Proposed 2007 USPS Rate Increases

2007 UPS Rate Increases take effect January 1, 2007. According to the UPS communication received November 17, 2006 rates are scheduled to increase as follows:
"UPS Ground service to commercial and residential destinations will have the same transportation charge, based on the lower commercial rate, and will increase 4.9%. The Ground residential surcharge that was previously built into the Ground residential rates will now appear as a separate charge on your UPS invoice. Air and International services will increase a net 4.9%, through a combination of a 6.9% increase in rates and a 2% reduction in the air fuel surcharge. In addition, the Delivery Area Surcharge and Residential Surcharge will both increase by $0.10."

Increased costs and decreased exposure across all venues are expected to continue in 2007. eBay has already announced plans to continue the "Disadvantaged" idea and decrease exposure to stores even more. To support continued revenue growth while their market declines eBay will have no other alternative than to raise fees again. Other venues are tossing around similar ideas.

Increased costs of packaging and shipping supplies are expected to rise between 3%-5% over the next 12 calender months to keep up with production cost increases. Given the increases in 2006 caused by Katrina and Petroleum costs the 3%-5% increase may be an underestimated figure.